Bold statement: a Padres rotation shakeup could hinge on one elbow and one decision, as Bryan Hoeing faces a slow return from elbow discomfort that could push him out of the Opening Day plans.
But here’s where it gets nuanced: San Diego has shut Hoeing down to protect him, while trying to gauge the true severity of the issue. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the team is taking a cautious approach, with pitching coach Ruben Niebla expressing early cautious optimism about the injury’s seriousness. The Padres will have more clarity in the coming days after Hoeing’s elbow is examined further.
What we know so far is this: Hoeing, a right-hander, is dealing with elbow discomfort and won’t be available to start the season until he’s cleared by medical staff. In the meantime, the Padres are prioritizing long-term health over a rushed return, a prudent move given how elbow injuries can derail a pitcher’s career. The 29-year-old Ho eing also endured a shoulder-related setback in 2025, limiting him to eight innings last season, which adds another layer of caution to any timeline.
Despite last year’s health hurdles, Hoeing could still play a meaningful role in San Diego’s bullpen if he recovers well. He displayed a notable rise with the Marlins in 2024, a performance that carried into his 2024-25 stint with the Padres after a trade deadline swap involving Tanner Scott. Since the start of 2024, Hoeing sits with a 2.34 ERA across 61 2/3 innings, and has posted a 1.99 ERA across 25 Padres appearances. Although his strikeout rate isn’t high (about 19.5%), he compensates with a 50.3% ground-ball rate and a solid walk rate, factors that continue to earn favorable opinions from advanced metrics like SIERA (around 3.77) despite often favoring pitchers who miss more bats.
In a crowded Padres bullpen, Hoeing would likely settle into middle-relief duties, especially with the late innings earmarked for a bullpen group led by names such as Mason Miller, Adrian Morejón, Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam, and David Morgan. If he can recapture 2024 form, there’s a path for him to contribute as part of a multi-weapon bullpen. However, the most probable scenario at this moment is him joining Matsui in handling middle innings, at least until fully healthy.
For now, Matsui—who has recently contended with an adductor strain—appears to be ahead in the return-to-play timeline, with Acee indicating the left-hander could begin mound work later this week if all goes well. Niebla’s comments align with that outlook, underscoring the team’s preference to manage workloads carefully and ensure readiness before reintegrating both arms into the mix.
What do you think: should the Padres prioritize patient, long-term recovery for Hoeing even if it delays the season start, or risk an earlier return to gain bullpen depth? Are you confident Hoeing can rebound to his 2024-25 performance, or do you expect a more limited role until he proves durability? Share your thoughts in the comments.
